The Blessing & Danger of Stats and Numbers

Helpforhurtingpastors - March 25, 2024

Statistics and numbers can help us to see how we are doing in the Lord’s work.

We understand this in other areas of life, don’t we?

If our water bill triples, that statistic means something, and it causes us to investigate and see why.
We track the mileage after our oil change, but why? So we know when we need our next oil change, so we can keep our car running well.
If we get reimbursed for mileage for business, we track it.
We track our credit card bill, but why? For many reasons – to see if we are overspending, to make sure the bill is correct, to insure there is no scamming, etc.
We go to the doctor and get a physical to check our health. It’s based by and large on numbers – blood pressure, pulse, blood count, cholesterol count, etc.

Isn’t the work of Jesus and people more important than water bills, cars, credit cards, or physical exams? Numbers and stats can be so helpful.

Biblical examples from the New Testament:

Acts 2 – It’s fascinating that they knew how many people trusted Jesus on the day of Pentecost. For Luke to know this number, somebody had to care enough to track it and record it.
2 Corinthians 8 – Paul tracked who had given to the special offering for the poor Jeruslaem saints. He knew that the Macedonian churches had given sacrificially, and he knew that the Corinthians had given nothing to it.
Philippians 4:3 – God tracks those who trust Jesus and even records their names in a Book!
Luke 15 – Jesus said that if a shepherd has 100 sheep and one is missing, he knows it and goes after it! This takes counting and stats to know this kind of information. As pastors, do we have an effective way of knowing which sheep are missing? How much more important are people than sheep!
Luke 14:28 – Before you build a building, Jesus said that a wise person sits down and counts the cost (interpretation: he looks at the numbers carefully)
John 21:11 – God knew and recorded the number of large fish in Peter’s net (153 fish). How much more important are people than fish!

I could go on and on, but I think it is pretty clear that God is not adverse to numbers and stats. In fact, I think it is fair to say that He is in favor of them.

Statistics and numbers can assist us in so many ways. They can:

Raise red flags
Challenge us and motivate us to do better
Give insight as to church health
Encourage and bless us
Help us to evaluate effectiveness in ministries and with staff
Exercise wiser stewardship of God’s resources

I believe it is extremely important for church leaders to constantly look at numbers. They are one of the indicators of church health.

How many first time guests are we averaging each week (new sheep)?
How many first time guests became second time guests (how many sheep returned)?
What percentage of our attendees are in a small group?
What percentage of our attendees are involved in serving?
What percentage of our attendees are giving regularly?
What percentage of our Sunday morning attendance are children and youth (is it a healthy ratio)?
How many leaders are we developing in a strategic way?
How many of our sheep have been through some sort of discipleship plan in the past year?

These are just a few of the numbers that I believe we should be constantly looking at in order to be good stewards of Jesus’ church. Every number represents a person, a soul for which Jesus died.

Here are some of the dangers of numbers and stats that we need to be aware of:

1. Numbers can be misleading.

Example: If a church grows by 5% we may assume this indicates health and progress. But if the geographic area where the church is located has grown in population by 15% in the past year, that 5% suddenly doesn’t look so good or healthy. The church isn’t even keeping up with population growth.
Example: But if your city has lost 20% in population (maybe a factory closed), and yet the church only decreased 5%, that is actually a positive number when taken in context.
In other words, numbers can be misleading if not taken in the proper context.

2. Numbers don’t always indicate health.

Example: How many times do we hear of a person that goes and gets a physical and the numbers are great, but then they have a massive heart attack? Likewise in church, there can be under the surface issues that the numbers may not indicate. Stats are a factor, but certainly not the only factor. Toxicity can exist even with good numbers (though the good numbers probably won’t last).

3. Numbers can be easily manipulated.

Pastors do this in order to look successful. For example, if a church has two services and they are double counting children that are there for both hours, and double counting workers and musicians, etc. then the numbers really aren’t a good indicator. They don’t mean a lot.
When I pastored, I was a stickler on getting accurate counts and NOT double counting people. I constantly said that numbers are only helpful if they are honest and accurate. If not, the numbers actually hurt and don’t help.
If a pastor is manipulating numbers, then there are bigger and more serious issues at hand than the stats!

4. Numbers can be ignored.

We can tend to focus on the numbers that are positive and ignore the numbers that indicate non-health. This is counter-productive.
We must do an honest assessment of all the numbers and not just the ones that are favorable. Again, think about a physical exam. You don’t want your doctor to only tell you about positive numbers. You want to know the negative numbers too so that you can address those issues.
For example, at one point in my 30 year pastorate, the church was growing, but in my opinion, our percentage of new members did not have enough young people (18 to 40). So we developed strategies for increasing this percentage and it was effective! We began to see a much more balanced demographic.

In conclusion, when it comes to statistics and numbers, there are two extremes:

We can think that numbers tell the entire story, and it can make us oblivious to issues and problems that we should be addressing.
The other extreme is to not keep good and accurate statistics and convince ourselves that they do not matter.

If it’s important to the cause of Jesus and to reaching and caring for people, then it’s worth tracking and evaluating those stats on a continual basis!